Aug 23

Who is Gerald Celente?

Posted by Kristjan Velbri | Posted in People, Personal Finance | Posted on 23-08-2009

Gerald CelenteGerald Celente is a trend forecaster, owner and founder of the Trends Research Institute. He is a citizen of the United States and lives in New York State. He was born (29-11-1946) and brought up in Bronx but originally he is of Italian descent.

Mr. Celente has appeared on numerous TV networks and is well known for his trend following and forecasting capabilities. He is one of the many who warned of the dangers that were lying ahead when the financial crisis started to escalate into an economic crisis. During the weeks and months that followed the bailouts of 2008, Mr. Celente gained audience as alternative and mainstream news media was eager to have him on due to his skills as a trend forecaster.

What does he do?

Mister Celente is a trend forecaster. He is not “the messenger” or “the prophet”, but rather someone who absorbs all the news and information out there and gives his best guess as to what might happen next. Mr. Celente describes it with the following phrase:  “current events form futures trends”. Not everyone is able to put two seemingly unrelated pieces of information together, but somehow, Mr. Celente and his team of 25 at the Trends Research Institute have managed to do that time and again. Mister Celente takes great pride in being a “political atheist” or in other words, someone who is not fooled by political religions (after all, Democrats and Republicans are two heads of the same dragon).

Mister Celente started his trend forecasting business back in 1980, after having been a government affairs specialist from 1973 to 1979. He named it The Socio-Economic Research Institute of America, a name which has now been substituted with a new name – The Trends Research Institute. Each quarter, Mr. Celente gives out a new publication, titled the Trends Journal which forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political and other trends. He also writes special forecasts for individuals and companies who have an interest in a particular topic.

What does his track record look like?

People that can “forecast” events pop up all the time only to fade away when people discover their track record or when they realize that their forecasts were as good as anybody’s. Given Mr. Celente’s track record, it is no surprise that the media is all over him. Here are just a few trend forecasts from the recent past:
2007 – The “Panic of ‘08″
2005 – Dollar Down, Gold to Soar
2005 – Alternative Energy Biz to Boom
2002 – Go for Gold – Beginning of gold bull market

And here are some from the previous century:
1996 – August 1998 Russian economic collapse
1988 – Rise of deep discount and warehouse shopping (think WalMart)
1986 – October 1987 world stock market crash

Why trust Mr. Celente’s forecasts?

The thing is, you don’t have to. As Mr. Celente says himself: “Don’t be a parrot, think for yourself!” He usually says that to illustrate the fact that too many Americans believe what the politicians and news media says. But I’d also apply that to what Mr. Celente says. What I’m saying is that no one piece of information should be taken as pure truth, especially if it’s a forecast, but it should, rather, be analyzed.

When I read the Trends Journal or listen to one of the radio broadcasts Mr. Celente regularly visits, my brain is constantly analyzing the information. I try to evaluate the validity of the information and compare it to what I’ve heard and read from other sources. The Trends Research Institute goes a long way to sift through all the information and make a forecast and their accuracy rate is pretty darn good, but in the end, you still need to use your own brain to decide to what degree you trust their analysis. There are no free lunches and this one is not an exception.
And remember, he forecasts trends, not specific events.

Where I can find more about him and his work?

The easiest way is to go to the Trends Research Institute website. Mister Celente is also a regular guest on many American TV and radio stations and more often than not, the video clips of his appearances are uploaded to YouTube (link to unofficial Gerald Celente channel on YouTube). Don’t be surprised to find a line or two from him or from his publications when you read the newspaper – every now and then, he is quoted in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, The Economist and other major news publications.

Mr. Celente is also the author of three books:

1991 – Trend Tracking: The System to Profit from Today’s Trends
1998 - Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century
2002 – What Zizi Gave Honeyboy: A True Story About Love, Wisdom, and the Soul of America

Just out

Gerald Celente’s most up to date trend forecasts can be found here.

Recently, Mr. Celente has been interviewed by Jim Puplava as well as Eric King. Here are the links to the interviews:
Gerald Celente on Financial Sense Newshour (interview starts at 19:10)
Gerald Celente on King World News (you have to listen to this!)

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